Sunday, February 5, 2012

Maal Laav!

Enjoy the relief rally! Like I last stated last time, banking stocks and cyclicals have rebounded. Firangs basically have made 22% since January, thanks to rupee and stock returns. So claw backs have been done, returns made, makes sense to book partially and re enter at a later stage. Fiscal situation has not changed overnight but what has happened is global liquidity influx from the ECB's version of the QE i.e. the LTRO, so money has found way to the worst performing emerging market i.e. India. FII flows were $2bn in Jan alone compared to negative last yr. Be swift while getting out once hot money flows evaporate and be ready to deploy money after the correction - Long onlys are waiting for that. The interest rate cycle has almost turned, globally things are more or less stabilising, domestic front reforms seem imminent...there has been a significant time correction in the market whilst earnings have grown ~40% in the last 3 years. So a re rating is inevitable. Time for equities has come! Rejoice!