Friday, June 29, 2012

Portfolio performance


OK! End of the month and lets see how portfolio has fared. Please remember this is an absolute return portfolio but still benchmarking it to give a sense of performance.
June was the worst performance in the last 9 months relatively, and fifth best in absolute terms. To put things in perspective, absolute return wise here is how they stack up –
October-11
7.5
November-11
(0.1)
December-11
(4.9)
January-12
0.1
February-12
6.6
March-12
1.9
April-12
0.9
May-12
(6.4)
June-12
0.4
So that’s 6 out of 9ms of positive outperformance and positive portfolio value since inception. So from an absolute return point – 67% hit ratio. Not bad. Relatively? Lets see
October-11
(2.4)
November-11
9.1
December-11
(0.6)
January-12
(12.3)
February-12
3.0
March-12
3.6
April-12
1.8
May-12
(0.2)
June-12
(6.8)

So uhm strike rate here a more humble 4 out of 9 – 40%. Various reasons for this –
1.       This is not an index linked portfolio
2.       Since its not index linked and its absolute INVESTMENT return portfolio, might not make sense to compare returns in such a short while
However I have given these numbers to get things in perspective about markets. Performance in June was twisted because your high beta generic names ran in the last 1 week because of various flimsy reasons – like Manmohanji raising Animal Spirits and what not!
Absolute deep value stocks like TTK Prestige, Gateway Distriparks,  Jain Irrigation (waiting for brickbats!), Treehouse Edu, Eros International have underperformed. Star of the show till date has been Power grid, consistent is not the word! Honourable mention for suitable absolute returns from TCS, LT, Dabur, HUL, ICICI and earlier BoB, ONGC, NTPC, Cipla.
So when does this turn? Well many mid caps have been taken with a 3-5 year perspective so would not comment now. For larger caps, I am very comfortable holding all of them at this juncture, a tad worried with BHEL and I know it will go nowhere for a while, but weightage wise that is minimal
Comments welcome!